Market Flash: Cooler CPI and a Consumer That’s… Just Fine

Coverage: February 11th - February 17th

Risk Appetite: Tech Led The Slip As AI Anxiety Re-Priced The Leaders

U.S. equities returned from the long weekend with a modest risk-off tone led by mega-cap tech. On the morning of Feb. 17, Futures were down — the S&P 500 fell ~0.8% and the Nasdaq fell ~1.2% with the day’s narrative driven less by a macro shock and more by renewed concern about AI-driven disruption and crowded positioning in the same names that have carried performance. The markets did rebound after opening.

A good example of AIs potential takeover: CNBC reported that two of its reporters used Anthropic’s Claude Code to build a functioning Monday.com-style clone in under an hour, a neat demo of how fast “good enough” software can be spun up now. The bigger read-through for SaaS: defensibility is getting murkier in workflow apps, and the market is likely to keep punishing names where the moat looks more UI-deep than distribution/integrations-deep.

Market interpretation (not fact): when index leadership is concentrated, “narrative volatility” concentrates too — small shifts in confidence show up fast at the index level.

Inflation: Headline Cooled; Core Still Needs “Greater Confidence”

January CPI kept the disinflation story intact. Headline CPI rose 0.2% m/m and 2.4% y/y, while core CPI (ex food/energy) rose 0.3% m/m and 2.5% y/y. Progress is real, but the “last mile” problem remains: core is closer to target, not at target. As a framing device, this aligns with the Fed’s repeated emphasis that it wants “greater confidence” inflation is moving sustainably toward 2% before easing.

The Consumer: Upright, But Not Sprinting

The Monthly Retail Trade report showed retail trade sales were virtually unchanged (±0.5%) from November 2025, and up 2.1% (±0.5%) from a year earlier. Translation: consumers are still spending, but the pace reads more “steady grind” than “re-acceleration.”

Why it matters: steady-but-not-hot demand makes it easier for inflation to cool without forcing policymakers into a rush while also limiting the case for imminent, aggressive easing.

Rates: The 10-Year Hovered Near 4%

Treasury yields stayed contained. Market pricing had the 10-year trading around the low-4% area this week — consistent with data that was incrementally “better” on inflation but not decisive enough to force a major re-pricing.

Market interpretation (not fact): the bond market is behaving like it’s waiting for a stronger signal (either renewed disinflation momentum or renewed growth heat) before it commits.

The Fed: “Several” Cuts Are Possible — If Inflation Cooperates

The January FOMC minutes are scheduled for Feb. 18. In the meantime, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said “several more” rate cuts could be possible in 2026 if inflation resumes a clear path toward 2% — a clean example of the Fed’s current posture: conditionality first, commitments later.

Olympics Sidebar: Team USA Is Winning Like A Diversified Portfolio

A clean, non-macro scoreboard: at the end of Day 10, Norway led with 28 total medals, Italy was second with 23, and the U.S. was third with 19. Team USA’s story reads more “broad accumulation” than “single-event dominance,” which is how you stay high in totals even if another country converts more gold.