Market Flash: Gas Rises Above $4 Nationally

The quarter limped across the finish line with energy, rates, and geopolitics doing most of the talking. The S&P 500’s weakest quarter since 2022 says plenty about the mood, while Brent near $115 and WTI above $104 kept inflation fears alive and gave investors one more reason to trim risk. A little quarter-end bounce showed up Tuesday, though the broader message stayed the same: when oil jumps this hard, almost every other asset starts acting like a supporting character.

The Strait and Narrow

The market still revolves around the same question: how long does the Middle East shock last, and how much damage does it do before anyone gets clarity? Gasoline moved back above $4 per gallon nationally, the dollar posted its strongest month since July, and investors kept treating the U.S. as the cleanest dirty shirt in a messy global laundry pile. Markets briefly grabbed onto reports suggesting Washington may prefer an off-ramp, yet fresh attacks and added troop deployments kept that relief trade on a very short leash.

Powell’s Waiting Game

Jerome Powell’s latest message came through clearly enough: the Fed can look through an oil spike for a while, though patience comes with an expiration date. In remarks that framed energy shocks as something monetary policy usually handles poorly in real time, he left room for a hold today and more resolve later if inflation expectations start drifting. That helped reinforce a theme Reuters captured well: financial conditions have already tightened sharply on their own, which gives central banks a little cover to watch markets do some of the heavy lifting.

Bonds Found Their Problem Again

Treasuries spent the week wrestling with a familiar headache: higher inflation risk colliding with higher fiscal strain. Reuters’ look at the Treasury market’s next test pointed to war funding, softer auction demand, and a deficit path that could push investors to ask for a bigger term premium. Yields eased a touch into month-end, though that looked more like nerves settling than a clean all-clear.

Growth Keeps Moving, Though With a Limp

Under the hood, the economy still looks more slowed than stalled. The flash U.S. PMI composite slipped to an 11-month low, with services doing most of the fading while price pressures re-accelerated. Consumer psychology also darkened, as the University of Michigan sentiment index fell to 53.3 and one-year inflation expectations moved higher. That mix leaves markets staring at an unpleasant blend: slower activity, firmer prices, and a jobs report on April 3 that suddenly carries more emotional baggage than usual.

Europe Gets the Energy Memo

Europe received a fresh reminder that imported energy shocks still travel fast. Euro zone inflation rose to 2.5% in March, while Germany’s inflation rate jumped to 2.8% and the country’s major institutes reportedly cut growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027. The result: Europe joined the same awkward conversation the Fed is having — growth soft enough to worry about, inflation sticky enough to keep policymakers from relaxing.

China, Briefly, Adds a Better Number

China’s official manufacturing PMI climbed back into expansion at 50.4, the best reading in a year. That helped temper some of the gloom around global demand, even if export weakness and higher energy costs still hang over the outlook. For markets starving for a clean positive data point, China delivered one. For anyone hoping it changes the global script by itself, that may be asking a bit much.

Baseball Is Back!

Opening Day arrived Thursday, with the Dodgers beginning their title defense in familiar fashion and the rest of the league stepping into the long rhythm of a fresh 162-game season. The day carried all the usual markers that make baseball feel distinct: packed ballparks, clean box scores, aces taking the mound, and every Mets’ fan thinking, “Hey, maybe this is our year.”

Trust us — it’s not.