Market Flash: Tariff Whiplash, AI Anxiety, And Oil’s Comeback Tour

Coverage: February 18, 2026 - February 24, 2026

Risk Appetite Got a Case of The Mondays (And A Decent Tuesday)

U.S. equities started the week getting slapped around by a twin headline: tariff uncertainty and a fresh wave of “AI disruption” nerves. Monday’s selloff bled into broad risk sentiment, then Tuesday saw a rebound led by software and mega-cap tech as investors rotated back into “AI winners.”

Europe wasn’t as forgiving: Reuters reported a soft STOXX 600 as trade uncertainty resurfaced and “AI disruption” jitters hit banks and cyclicals, with defensives catching a bid.

The Tariff Plot Twist: Supreme Court Says “Try Again,” White House Does

The week’s core policy shock: the U.S. Supreme Court struck down Trump’s sweeping global tariffs. The administration responded by rolling out a temporary 10% global tariff for 150 days under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, while a White House official said they’re working to lift that temporary rate to 15% — timing still unclear because collections require formal direction to Customs and Border Protection.

Fed Minutes: “Hold” Was Easy; The Next Step Was Not

The Fed minutes showed a near-unanimous support for keeping rates on hold, but with a meaningful split on what comes next: “several” officials open to hikes if inflation stays elevated, while others lean toward cuts if disinflation resumes. Importantly, policymakers are also grappling with AI’s longer-run economic implications—another variable in a policy reaction function that was already busy.

AI Fear and a $60B Chip Headline

The AI narrative this week swung from existential to operational in about two trading sessions. Anthropic launched 10 new AI tools aimed at business use (with partners including Thomson Reuters, Salesforce, and FactSet), helping lift software names. In the same tape, AMD jumped after announcing a $60 billion AI chip deal with Meta, a reminder that “AI capex” is still very real money flowing through real supply chains.

Oil Is Back in the Inflation Conversation

Oil’s recent role as a disinflationary tailwind may be fading. Brent and WTI were reported near seven-month highs, and — crucially for inflation math — the year-over-year “base effect” is close to flipping from deflationary to inflationary.  Brent was only about 2% cheaper than a year ago (versus ~30% lower in early January), meaning energy may stop quietly helping the inflation prints.

“Bye America” Got Louder

U.S. investors pulled money from U.S. equity products at the fastest pace in at least 16 years: $75B out over six months, including $52B out since the start of 2026, with flows favoring overseas markets and emerging markets despite FX headwinds.

Alysa Liu’s Comeback, Then Men’s Hockey’s “Miracle” Callback

If Team USA needed a signature storyline in Milano Cortina, Alysa Liu delivered it. After stepping away after the 2022 Beijing Games citing burnout, she came back stronger and “creatively refreshed,” snapping a long U.S. drought in the event.

Then men’s hockey supplied the Hollywood ending: USA 2, Canada 1 in overtime, with Jack Hughes scoring the winner, ending the U.S. men’s gold drought (first since 1980) exactly 46 years to the day after the “Miracle on Ice” win over the Soviet Union.